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As we go through the mundanity of our day-to-day lives, it becomes easy to forget that the nation we are part of evolves at a rapid pace. This is not a crime. Human beings are short-sighted by nature. But if people consider themselves aware of the world at large, if they follow the news of emerging trends and rapid advancements, if they keep tabs on ongoing clashes of ideologies as great nations vie to carve their portion of a new world order, they would be hard pressed not to see how unique of a position our small nation finds itself in now.

For one thing, people will find that Bangladesh is not small at all. Bangladesh is big. It is the most densely populated country and the eighth largest population in the world. It is the second largest economy in South Asia after India. Bangladesh is considered an economic miracle, a success story of nation-building like no other. Bangladesh is also hailed as a model UN representative nation and a world leader in climate diplomacy and advocacy. And now, Bangladesh is also a vital player in the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific.

However, despite all these accolades and achievements, Bangladesh is still struggling to live up to ideals of the great liberation war from which it was birthed. Weak democratic institutions, a weak judicial system, weak local governments, weak rights records, weak measures against rampant corruption, a weakening civil society, and weakening civil liberties are but a few of the many blights tarnishing the nation’s reputation.

In various international indexes, we see Bangladesh ranks the 73rd in the Democracy Index published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the 123rd in the Economic Freedom Index published by the Heritage Foundation, the 147th in the Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International and the 163rd in the World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders. Such poor scores indicate that Bangladesh still lacks in some vital categories. But one does not need to see scientific studies to know that democracy, income inequality, corruption and press freedom are problems of Bangladesh. The average people of Bangladesh live with these problems day to day.

All these issues coalesce into the much egregious issue of how political power has been systematically stolen from people. People have been robbed of their greatest power granted to them under the mandate of democracy. They have lost the power to choose their leaders. In fact, Bangladesh has not seen a proper election in a very long time. Not only the current regime but all governments so far have sought to undermine the sanctity of national elections to fulfil their short-sighted ambitions. The people of Bangladesh now watch on helplessly as a democracy is held to ransom.

The key issue that is causing the political deadlock now is under which government the next election should be held. The ruling Awami League government is adamant that the elections should be held under its rule, referring to the constitution that it amended unopposed in a parliament where the main opposition parties of Bangladesh were absent. The two other options presented by various parties include the reintroduction fo a neutral caretaker government or the creation of a coalition government of all major parties to conduct the elections. A recent study by the International Republican Institute indicated that the majority of the people (44 per cent) preferred the caretaker government option as opposed to the ruling party option (25 per cent) and the coalition government option (25 per cent).

The findings also paint a bleak picture of people of Bangladesh. The findings of the study suggest that economic and political pessimism are high among Bangladeshis. Participants of the study commonly described daily economic struggles and expressed disappointment about the state of democracy, elections, political parties and foreign influence. Still, participants were eager to vote if the government and parties took steps to improve democratic processes and wanted to hear candidates and elected officials address key problems in the country. With the national elections approaching, the citizens’ political interest is growing, but their faith in democratic institutions remains low. The attack on political candidate Hero Alom, reports of violence against and intimidation of journalists, including violence directed at reporters covering Supreme Court elections, an assault on the brother of a London-based journalist for Al Jazeera, the attack of a Dhaka Tribune photojournalist and the recently reported detention of a Prothom Alo journalist all work to corroborate these findings.

However, regardless of the people’s preferences, the political parties are stubbornly set in their ways. No one is willing to compromise. There is no room for dialogue. There are only protest and counter-protest. And there is violence. Despite a wide-scale criticism both at home and abroad, the government yet maintains its greatest tools for political suppression in the form of the new cyber security act, which grants the government the draconian power to charge any citizen with defamation if they say anything that harms ‘national harmony’ and the ‘spirit of liberation’.

The ambitions of the short-sighted parties are now too big to be ignored by the rest of the world. Political deadlock and brinksmanship have exacerbated the situation to no possible, safe exit for any party. Therefore, as the elections approach, the worst outcomes become more probable. However, the turmoil has now crossed borders and spilled into the Indo-Pacific. Because of this reason, the forthcoming national elections of Bangladesh have now become a melting pot of even larger geopolitical ambitions. The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, India, China and Russia are just a few of the largest world powers that have directly and indirectly implied that they are keeping a close eye on Bangladesh this time, unlike ever before.

If activities of the US ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas, are of reference, it would indicate that the United States is, perhaps, the most interested foreign party in the fairness of the forthcoming elections of Bangladesh. Not only has there been steady support from the United States regarding the necessity for free, fair, and inclusive elections, the United States has also created a visa policy specific for Bangladesh to discourage any potential bad actors from undermining the democratic process. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion for rights violations, a process that was a year in the making in the US Congress. Now, we have multiple US members of Congress being very vocal about the degrading situation in Bangladesh. The suppression of journalists and opposition politicians seems to have hit a nerve, resulting in multiple open letters from the Congress to the US president and the US delegation to the United Nations. Numerous high-profile diplomatic visits, Peter Haas’s meetings with all political parties of Bangladesh and a recent bipartisan Congress delegation to Bangladesh all but confirm that the US Congress is primed to take action if Bangladesh fails to deliver an election acceptable to its people.

In a similar sentiment, the United Kingdom has also announced support for free, fair, and participatory elections in Bangladesh. The UK high commissioner, Sarah Cooke, stated after a meeting with the chief election commissioner that they ‘discussed the vital role of strong independent institutions, the role of the media, civil society, and independent observers.’

The European Union also sent an election-related exploration mission that met several key people in Bangladesh and is now preparing a report regarding the forthcoming election.

The deputy spokesman for the UN secretary general Farhan Haq stated that the United Nations encourages peaceful, credible, and inclusive elections in Bangladesh. In 2022, Gwyn Lewis, the UN resident coordinator in Bangladesh, stated in a press release that ‘As Bangladesh is coming closer to its national election next year, we remind Bangladesh of its commitments, as a UN member state, to free expression, media freedom, and peaceful assembly among others written in the Declaration. We reaffirm UN’s full support to Bangladesh in upholding its commitments.’

This kind of compiling interest has agitated all other regional players. Those who might lose the most from a fall of the current status quo are now becoming more vocal.

China’s president Xi Jinping met Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, where he emphasised that China supports Bangladesh in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and in opposing external interference so that the country can maintain domestic unity and stability and achieve development and revitalisation.

Indian media are aflutter with claims that India has conveyed its concerns on this issue to the United States during several recent interactions, stating that they worry that US pressure on the issue of free and fair elections could push Bangladesh closer to China, a development that can have ramifications for the region.

Meanwhile, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has announced a visit to Dhaka in September before he joins the G20 summit in Delhi.

This kind of geopolitical rumbling centred around Bangladesh has not been witnessed since the liberation war. All parties know that the stakes are high. All these conflicting ambitions and geopolitical power plays are predicated on understanding Bangladesh as a nation on a precipice. Bangladesh is currently a nation of many in-betweens. Bangladesh is considered a middle power in world politics. Bangladesh is considered a hybrid regime, between a democracy and an autocracy. As a nation slated for LDC graduation, Bangladesh exists between the global north and south. And now, Bangladesh is also caught in the great powers rivalry between the geopolitical east and west. Bangladesh is truly a nation in metamorphosis.

No one knows what the end result of this transformation will be, but right now, the world is watching Bangladesh. In a recent open letter to the prime mnister, signed by more than 170 global leaders, including former US president Barack Obama, former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon and more than 100 Nobel laureates, it was stated that the international community is deeply concerned by threats to democracy and human rights observed in Bangladesh recently. The letter read, ‘We believe that it is of the utmost importance that the upcoming national election be free and fair, and that the administration of the election be acceptable to all major parties in the country. The previous two national elections lacked legitimacy.’

There is no longer any time to bury our heads in the sand and hope that we as individuals will be untouched by the fallout of any potential disaster. There is no time for political apathy and disregard, as elections are rigged and stolen right before our eyes. Bangladesh is too big and too important. The issues we face are too big and too important. As the rest of the world promises vigilance, we, the people of Bangladesh, must be doubly so. In these uncertain times, the only thing certain is that people will lose the most if Bangladesh fails to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections. Therefore, the people need to rise up and raise the voice to regain their lost power. Only the people of Bangladesh can reclaim the ownership of the nation. Only the people of Bangladesh can restore democracy.

Zillur Rahman is the executive director of the Centre for Governance Studies and a television talk-show host.

This article was originally published on New Age.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.