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“The ballot is stronger than the bullet”
- Abraham Lincoln

Is it?

The year of 2024 made the world see and experience the power of this quote. Many countries have held elections. Some are walking towards democracy, some overlook the manipulation of the super powers, some are continuously protesting against rigged elections. One such country is Georgia. The parliamentary election of Georgia was held on October 26, 2024. The Georgian Dream party won the election. However the Georgian news media and the people said this election was rigged and the protest started on the street after the results had been announced. What is the reason behind their dissatisfaction?

If we go back in history, Georgia got its independence after the break of the Soviet Union after 1991. However, the road was never smooth for this young country. After the independence ethnic conflicts in Abkhazia and South Oseetia. The people of Abkhazia wanted an independent state as their culture is different from Georgians. On the other hand, the people of South Ossetia wanted to reunite with North Ossetia, which is situated in Russia. The scenario changed after Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, in Russia. Long story short, because when the European Union welcomed Ukraine and Georgia to join, it was a red light for Russia, resulting in the war of Russia and Georgia in the Abkhazia and South Osseti. Though it ended after 12 days on a ceasefire by France, even though Russia did not care about the ceasefire and took control over two territories of Georgia. 

In 2023, it was shown on a survey that 79 percent of Georgians wanted to join the EU and 67 percent of them wanted to join NATO. Although anto-westen propaganda started by the Georgian Dream Party who came to power in 2012. After that day by day the pro-Russian influence is seen in the government. It is important to mention that Bidzina Ivanishvili is the founder and informal leader of Georgian Dream and an oligarch who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s and 2000s. After 2012 Georgian Dream Party came to power and slowly engaged Russian influence in the Georgian Society. 

On October 26, 2024, elections took place in Georgia and the Georgian Dream Party won the election. This is a clear indication that joining the EU won't be easy for Georgia. Georgian Dream doesn't support Russia directly though their stance is anti-Western and wants to be in a friendly relationship with Russia as it still occupies 20 percent of Georgian territory from 2008. After winning the election the Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that the government will not be involved in talks to join the EU till 2028. In the effects the opposition and Georgians have staged nightly protests in the capital Tbilisi and other cities since November. Here no less to mention that, the EU granted Georgia candidate status in December 2023 on condition that it meets the bloc’s recommendations but put its accession on hold and cut financial support earlier this year after the passage of a “foreign influence” law widely seen as a blow to democratic freedoms. This is a clear indication that the current government has a pro Russian policy. Through analysis we can come to this conclusion that, whoever wants to join the western ally or EU, Russia will get into the matter and will shake everything up to gain the upper hand. The same we have seen with Ukraine. When Ukraine wanted to join the European Union, Russia attacked the country to “take back what’s theirs”, according to Russia. The red county put up their logic by saying Ukraine has always been their integral part, and now they are rooting for the annexation. The majority of the Georgian people think of Russia as a threat and consider themselves European and deny any involvement of Russia in the inclusion of the EU. Experts also assume Georgia will face the same fate as Ukraine if the international organizations do not take any measures to prevent that. 

On the other hand, Russia is playing its game to  secure itself from any western involvement. If any bordering countries of Russia joins the European Union or NATO, that will be a huge security threat to Russia. By creating instability in their bordering countries Russia wants to create a “security zone” significant by military, political, and economic influence on these countries. Literally Russia wants to make Ukraine and Georgia “the next Belarus”, where it lost its independence and now  its strategic assets (railways, communications, oil and gas pipelines) are in the hands of Russia including all the policies as well. Previously Georgia has shown their capability and strength without any support of Russia in the region. They established an energy connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey by running a successful energy project in 2003. Georgians peacefully protested rigged elections, ousting the declared winners, Citizens' Union.Georgia declared independence on April 9, 1991, before the Soviet Union's collapse. But this time it seems difficult for the country to hold the democracy and tackle the Russian influence in Georgia, as it is declared that the election in 2024 was rigged (by the election observers). Newspapers and international media are also spreading this news. However it does not seem that the Russia backed Georgian Dream Party will consider any of the protests or mobs by the Georgians. Needless to say, democracy hardly prevails for the Georgians. 

Depanjai Roy is the Chief of Staff at CGS

Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.