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Shahzada Zulfiqar, a Quetta-based political analyst, suggests that the Pakistani government is employing mass deportations as a means of conveying a message to Kabul. “The main objective of this crackdown is to pressure the Afghan Taliban government to stop supporting the Pakistani Taliban,” he remarks.The current refugee crisis taking place at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border adds to the dysfunctional and unfortunate political narrative of the region. In the past, Pakistan has undertaken comparable initiatives. Seven years ago, in the assessment of displaced persons in the region during 2016, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) had released related data:over 600,000 Afghan immigrants, both authorized and unauthorized, left Pakistan and returned home. The returnees had cited excessive monitoring, unpredictability in relation to maintaining a legal status in Pakistan and the fear of being deported as the primary causes of entering Afghanistan. Such an evacuation had taken place in Pakistan in 2018 as well and according to UNCHR numbers, about 50,000 Afghans, of which some were in possession of legal papers, were sent back that year.Three years down the line, in 2021, Afghanistan’s political system completely collapsed. The Fall of Kabul officially spelled the end of the War in Afghanistan as the Afghan Taliban took control of the nation.After the Taliban’s seizure of power, an estimated 600,000 to 800,000 Afghans are thought to have migrated to Pakistan. This influx joined the existing 4 million Afghans who, in the years preceding 2021, had already left Afghanistan and sought refuge in Pakistan with the aspiration of leading ordinary lives. At this point in time, the Afghan population residing in Pakistan consisted of those who had obtained legal status (and been living in Pakistan for many years), undocumented persons and persecuted Afghans who were looking for refuge (exp. journalists). 

Throughout 2023, the Pakistani establishment has been challenged by security threats, especially in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. According to Al Jazeera, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has initiated upwards of 300 coordinated attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa this year. The Pakistani government has maintained its stance that the Afghan Taliban is providing sanctuary to militants affiliated with the proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which shares ideological alignment with the Afghan Taliban.Political experts have observed that the TTP has altered its strategy following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and contend that the said outlawed organization has, today, broadened its operational scope to include Balochistan.This year, the mentioned province has witnessed kidnappings, the killing of Pakistani officials and innocent civilians, and a sudden surge in lawlessness, prompting Balochistani authorities to declare a state of emergency.While this provincial announcement was made in late September 2023, it was promptly followed by an ultimatum from the Pakistani government in the first week of the subsequent month, when it was publicly declared that no ‘illegal aliens’ would be permitted to reside in Pakistan after November 1st. During this proclamation, it was stated that Afghans had, in 2023, been heavily involved in terrorist activities taking place in Pakistan, possessions of “illegal aliens will be confiscated, illegal business operators and their facilitators will be prosecuted” and that a government-assigned task force would “seize people with fake identity cards and illegal properties built on their fake documents.”Since assuming power in 2021, the Taliban government has encouraged Afghans to return home and from this perspective, the exodus seems to be a win-win situation for both nations. However, the Afghan administration has also criticized Pakistan's actions, asserting that citizens are being penalized due to tensions between Islamabad and Kabul.

Pakistan has stated that the deportations aim to safeguard its national security in response to a significant increase in attacks, which Prime Minister Kakar’s cabinet attributes to armed groups operating from Afghanistan. In accepting Pakistan’s decision, the Taliban government in Afghanistan has appealed to Pakistan to grant additional time for undocumented Afghans within the country to depart, particularly as pressure increases at border posts with thousands of returnees congregating. With approximately 900 kilometers between them, the Torkham and Chaman border crossings are being used to enforce Pakistan's new anti-immigration policy and facilitate the repatriation of undocumented Afghans to their home country. It has been reported that about 300,000 Afghans have left Pakistan in recent weeks. This comes after Prime Minister Kakar’s caretaker government publicly acknowledged that around 1.7 million undocumented refugees and migrants were still living in Pakistan. At both the aforementioned border crossings, temporary settlements have been established to accommodate returnees. Aid organizations have issued a warning that the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Afghans from Pakistan will worsen the already severe humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. They are urging increased international funding to meet the requirements of the returning population. The United Nations (UN) has also shared its viewpoint on the present situation. In a press release, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed deep concern about Pakistan's deportation announcement, citing the presence of more than two million undocumented Afghans currently residing in the country. Nevertheless, the message from top ranking Pakistani officials is clear and seemingly in cohesion. Zubair Jamali, the Balochistan state home minister recently stated, “Afghan nationals had carried out 14 of 24 suicide bombings in Pakistan this year. They are involved in destabilising the country and it won’t be tolerated.”

Balochistan borders Afghanistan and is home to Prime Minister Kakar’s political party, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), which is one of the leading parties in the Senate of Pakistan (the upper house of the bicameral Parliament of Pakistan). Presently, several Islamist, jihadist, and sectarian groups are active in Balochistan which are advocating for Baloch separatism on the basis of the Baloch nationalist movement, history and Pakistan-China collaborations within Balochistan. Such groups allegedly maintain links with like-minded associations in, both, Iran and Afghanistan. In this regard, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)opposes Chinese investment in Pakistan and Balochistan, arguing that the local population does not reap any benefits.The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, known as CPEC, represents a bilateral expansion of Beijing's worldwide Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Balochistan happens to be a vital part of its agenda. Pakistan, approximately a decade ago, transferred the operations of the Gwadar Port (located in the province of Balochistan and at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz) to the China Overseas Ports Holding Company. This move is a significant aspect of the CPEC project, which aims to promote economic development and trade connectivity in the region.The Gwadar Port holds much geo-strategical influence for both, Pakistan and China, and has been identified as one of the most significant aspects of the CPEC initiative.Groups like BLA, though,oppose the notion of a Chinese-led development agendaand condemn Beijing and Islamabad for profiting from the natural resources, such as oil, copper, gold, and iron ore, in Balochistan.According to the vigilante groups, the sovereignty of Balochistan is at stake in the face of external interference and perceived threats to regional autonomy. Amidst the chaos, the Pakistani administration has come forward with its own plans and seems determined to achieve its own objectives. 

Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Jalil Abbas Jilani, had this to say during the 2023 Meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of Government, “CPEC is a force multiplier for regional connectivity. Lack of connectivity is an impediment to regional trade, investment, and development. CPEC does not only connect Pakistan to its neighbour, China, but also offers all SCO Member States a chance to invest in our shared future and full regional economic integration.”It is of note that the Pakistani administration’s latest involvement in the Afghan refugee crisis comes at a time when the largest percentage of Pakistan’s external debts are owed to Chinese entities. More than a balancing act, the November 1st ultimatum may be seen as the nuclear-armed state making a stern decision. This resolution, however, is one in which history has repeated itself.

Mohammad Nihad Nowsher is a Research Assistant at CGS