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A disputed India-Pakistan border in Kashmir isn’t the only threat to stability on the subcontinent. One that’s often overlooked is water security.

India and Pakistan should incorporate transboundary watery cooperation into broader security dialogues to deescalate tensions, build cooperation and resilience, and ensure that water-sharing agreements are insulated from geopolitical fictions.

This can help the region safeguard against future tensions just as climate impacts strain access across the Indus River Basin.

These waters are shared by Pakistan (47 percent), India (39 percent), China (8 percent) and Afghanistan (6 percent). They all depend on the river for agriculture, drinking water and hydropower.

The situation is particularly dire for Pakistan, which relies on the Indus River for more than 90 percent of its water and is already grappling with severe water shortages due to both droughts and flooding.

The Indus Water Treaty, which prevented conflict by regulating water distribution, has historically insulated water security from Pakistan’s fraught relationships with upstream nations, particularly India and China. Yet changing water availability challenges the treaty’s efficacy.

Several concurrent climate drivers are at play, which have already challenged disaster response capabilities, complicating long-term adaptation. This includes a near-term acceleration and eventual loss in glacial melt flows; shifting monsoon patterns that have contributed to severe floods; and drought conditions exacerbated by those dynamics.

Glacial meltwater accounts for a significant portion of annual flows in the Indus River Basin in the dry season. As global temperatures rise, glaciers in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush ranges melt at an accelerated rate, leading to short-term abundance in water. As glaciers retreat due to climate change, this flow will eventually decrease, leading to long-term water scarcity. Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to severe water shortages that could result from this.

In addition to glacial melt, the basin also relies heavily on the seasonal monsoons to recharge its water reserves. However, climate change has caused shifts in monsoon patterns, leading to more erratic and intense rainfall. This has contributed to more severe floods, particularly in Pakistan, where the Indus River frequently overflows, causing widespread damage to crops, infrastructure and human settlements. For example, the 2010 floods in Pakistan were among the worst in the country’s history, affecting 20 million people and causing more than US$19 billion in damage.

Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Indus Basin. A 2021 World Bank report indicated that Pakistan, India and Afghanistan were experiencing increasing water scarcity due to prolonged periods of drought, exacerbated by reduced glacial melt and unpredictable monsoon patterns. In 2018, Pakistan faced its worst water crisis in decades, with many regions, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, facing severe drought conditions. This scarcity, combined with a growing population and expanding agricultural needs, is placing tremendous pressure on the region’s water resources.

Pakistan has expressed concerns about India’s upstream infrastructure projects, citing both technical issues and national security worries, including the potential for India to influence water flows during periods of tension. India, in turn, emphasises its right to develop its water resources while acknowledging the need to address cross-border concerns through dialogue and cooperation.

Climate change exacerbates these insecurities by making water availability less predictable, thus amplifying the strategic importance of the Indus River and the need for cooperative management to prevent water from becoming a catalyst for conflict.

Despite these challenges, there are several strategies that can be employed to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water security in the Indus Basin.

Transboundary water cooperation is one of the most critical avenues for addressing these challenges. Strengthening the Indus Water Treaty and promoting joint management of the basin’s water resources through regional platforms could help reduce tensions and foster collaboration. Incorporating water security into broader India-Pakistan security dialogues could also deescalate tensions, ensuring that water-sharing agreements are insulated from geopolitical tensions. The establishment of data-sharing agreements and joint monitoring systems would improve transparency and provide the necessary tools to manage water resources more effectively.

The adoption of sustainable water management practices, such as water-efficient irrigation technologies, can help reduce water wastage in agriculture. Drip irrigation, water-efficient crop varieties and better crop management practices could significantly reduce the demand for water in agriculture, enabling more efficient use of available resources.

Finally, the implementation of early-warning systems and climate adaptation strategies could help the region better prepare for extreme weather events. These systems would provide real-time data on river flows, weather patterns and water levels, enabling governments to take proactive measures before disasters occur. Strengthening disaster preparedness at the community level, particularly in flood-prone areas, would be vital to reducing the human and economic costs of climate-induced water crises.

Neeraj Singh Manhas is special advisor for South Asia at the Parley Policy Initiative, South Korea, and affiliated as a subject matter expert at the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, HQ-IDS, Ministry of Defence, Government of India, and a non-resident visiting senior fellow at the Centre for National Security Studies, India.  

This article was originally published on The Strategist.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.