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As a speaker, I recently attended the Bay of Bengal Conversation in Dhaka from November 22 to 24, the only global geopolitical dialogue hosted in Bangladesh, with participants from 85 countries. While my sessions were on artificial intelligence and digital technologies, I chanced to listen to many sessions covering various facets of the current situation in Bangladesh as well as the regional geopolitics. The firsthand visit also gave me enough understanding of the ground realities there.

Bangladesh stands at a pivotal moment in its turbulent political history. As the nation prepares for simultaneous parliamentary elections and a constitutional referendum in February 2026, the stakes could not be higher. This dual event will not only determine the country’s immediate political direction but also test whether meaningful democratic reforms can take root in a land where democracy has struggled to flourish for most of its 54-year existence.

The story of Bangladeshi democracy reads like a chronicle of broken promises and violent interruptions. Military coups have disrupted civilian governance in the past. Two presidents, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Ziaur Rahman, fell to assassins’ bullets. Near-autocratic regimes have come and gone, leaving behind a trail of manipulated elections and shattered democratic institutions. Against this backdrop, the upcoming electoral exercise carries extraordinary significance.

At the heart of the current political transformation lies the July Charter, a document born from the violent student-led uprising of July and August 2024, which represents a watershed moment in Bangladesh’s political evolution. Young protesters demanding accountability took to the streets in massive numbers and finally dismantled the government of Sheikh Hasina, forcing the long-serving Prime Minister to flee to India for refuge.

The human cost of that uprising was significant. More than 1400 protesters lost their lives during the government crackdown, with hundreds more suffering serious injuries. These casualties galvanised public sentiment and accelerated the political transition. The events of those tumultuous days fundamentally altered Bangladesh’s political landscape.

The legal proceedings that followed have kept the former Prime Minister at the centre of political discourse. A special tribunal recently sentenced Hasina and her former home minister to death for crimes against humanity. Subsequently, another court handed her a 21-year prison sentence in multiple corruption cases. These legal developments ensure that questions about accountability and the previous government’s final months remain prominent in national conversations. The credibility of the tribunal’s decisions, in view of its composition and the breakneck speed at which the verdict was delivered, is also a matter of concern.

The Awami League, which Sheikh Hasina led through 16 consecutive years in power from 2008 to 2024, now operates under significant constraints. The party’s activities have been suspended, dramatically reducing its current political role. During its tenure, Bangladesh experienced substantial economic growth, with development indicators improving across multiple sectors. Major infrastructure projects were completed, poverty rates declined, and the country achieved notable progress on various development metrics. However, critics argue that these gains were accompanied by growing concerns about democratic accountability. The concentration of power raised questions about institutional independence and space for political opposition. The party’s legacy remains contested, with supporters pointing to economic achievements while detractors emphasise democratic shortcomings.

While navigating domestic political turbulence, Bangladesh has wisely maintained focus on international engagement. The Bay of Bengal Conversation in Dhaka exemplified this approach, positioning the nation as a serious regional player committed to constructive dialogue on geopolitical issues. Such forums help counter any impression that internal instability has compromised Bangladesh’s capacity for strategic thinking. There are many murmurs across the strategic and intellectual community about the involvement of the US and China in the region and the future of Bangladesh.

India’s role in Bangladesh’s future cannot be overstated. The interim government has intensified demands for Hasina’s extradition, pressing New Delhi to hand over the former leader so she can face justice at home. India’s response will significantly impact bilateral relations. The Ministry of External Affairs has acknowledged it is examining the extradition request while emphasising its commitment to Bangladesh’s stability. This represents a delicate balancing act for India, which must weigh legal obligations, humanitarian considerations, and strategic interests. To date, $13 billion worth of trade takes place between the two countries across a host of areas.

Pakistan, meanwhile, has moved swiftly to exploit the vested interests amplified by Delhi-Dhaka friction. Trade relations between Islamabad and Dhaka are warming rapidly, with Pakistan preparing to export 100,000 tonnes of rice to Bangladesh. Pakistani officials have offered Bangladesh access to Karachi Port Trust facilities to enhance regional trade connectivity, including with Central Asian states and China. Direct flights between the two nations are scheduled to commence this December. Military-to-military engagement is also expanding. Pakistan’s charm offensive represents a direct challenge to India’s traditional influence in Bangladesh.

Here lies a crucial reality check for both nations. The majority of today’s Bangladeshi voters were not alive during the 1971 War of Liberation. The Pakistani military’s genocide, India’s decisive military intervention, and the massive humanitarian assistance New Delhi provided are historical facts, but not lived experiences for most citizens of today. For younger Bangladeshis, the 2024 uprising constitutes their defining political moment, their “Second Independence.” This generational shift in perspective means historical gratitude cannot substitute for contemporary relevance.

India has invested substantially in Bangladesh’s infrastructure development in recent years, contributing to projects that tangibly improve lives. These achievements must not be squandered through temporary statements and insensitive steps. Dhaka must be persuaded through actions, not historical appeals, that partnership with stable, democratic India serves its interests better than alignment with an unpredictable Pakistan that offers short-term gains. The Indian mission in Dhaka is definitely doing a good job on the ground in this direction.

As India watches developments in its neighbourhood with understandable concern, preparation for engaging with an elected Bangladeshi government must begin now. Simultaneously, countering Pakistani propaganda requires a sustained, sophisticated effort. The path forward demands wisdom, patience, and recognition that Bangladesh’s democratic journey, however imperfect, deserves support — for stable democratic institutions and enhanced economic partnerships.

The writer is a defence and tech policy adviser and former country head of General Dynamics

This article was originally published on The Indian Express.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.