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The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now led by Chairman Tarique Rahman, has come to power after almost 20 years. This party has always occupied a centrist position in Bangladesh's politics. Unlike Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) and the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL), the BNP does not have a large number of dedicated cadre activists. The party has traditionally come to power through the people's mandate rather than relying solely on its own activists and personnel.

In 1991, the BNP formed the government for the first time. Political analysts were shocked by the election results. At that time, most stakeholders, policymakers, journalists, and political observers expected the Awami League (BAL) to form the government. However, the Bangladeshi people appreciated former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia's attitude, behavior, and leadership style. They voted for her party.

So, we can say that the BNP is not a cadre-based political party. It is a supporter-based centrist party with a broad identity.

As mentioned earlier, after nearly 20 years, the BNP has returned to power with overwhelming public support. It secured approximately 212 seats out of 299 (a landslide victory and two-thirds majority in parliament). Before the election, various kinds of propaganda were spread by its opponents, including Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), the National Citizen Party (NCP), and remnants/supporters of the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL). 

However, the people decided to vote for the BNP in large numbers. This is a very strong signal that the party still enjoys deep trust among the people.

The BNP has only one path to remain in power now and to return to power in the future (e.g., in 2031): by continuing to rely on and mobilize its supporters and activists. You can view this as either the party's weakness or its greatest strength.

Unnecessary Statements to the Press

The BNP will face many kinds of challenges in the coming days. First of all, the BNP must uphold the people's trust, and its leaders need to be very careful about the people's pulse. To maintain this trust, ministers should be cautious during press meetings. Journalists will ask many controversial questions, but cabinet members should respond in a way that aligns with the mindset and expectations of the people.

Facing this challenge is easier than others. The BNP chairman is already aware of the need to be careful when making statements in front of the press. I hope the ministers will remember PMr's advice and act accordingly.

Challenges in Parliament

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) will not be an opposition like the previous ones, such as the Bangladesh Jatiya Party. Pre-election experience directly indicates that BJI will criticize the government aggressively and will never miss any opportunity to damage the BNP's image, as they are clearly targeting the next election to come to power. Therefore, when presenting private members' bills or government bills in parliament, they should be reviewed again and again, especially those related to foreign policy.

On the other hand, the National Citizen Party (NCP) will also be vocal in parliament. These inexperienced parliamentarians are likely to raise questions related to the July uprising. As a result, the next parliament will be very vibrant.

Bangladesh Awami League's return to politics

As I mention earlier BNP is a centrist political party. The party always against to banning any political party. BNP condemned when Bangladesh Awami League banned Bangladesh Jamat e Islami political activities and cancellation of its registration. 

Whenever question raise to banning Awami League as a political party, BNP disagreed with interim's position. This party believe that, if the Court orders that, as a political party BAL was involved in mass killing during July uprising, that will be according to the law. So, BNP's position is very clear. This party believe that, the matter of Bangladesh Awami League should be solved in Court. The party also proposed by written to format chief advisor that, Awami League's matter should be solved in 'right way'.

But what's the context?

Bangladesh held an election without the participation of the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL). Approximately 60% of voters turned out to cast their ballots for various political parties. This means the absence of the Awami League from the voting landscape can largely be ignored in terms of overall participation.

The bigger issue is that competing against Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) in the election proved more difficult. Their 'strategy', 'double standards', and 'unimaginable policies' are very harmful to BNP's politics. It is extremely tough, even impossible, to predict what BJI's political leaders are thinking, what they truly believe in, or what they plan to do next.

At that point, the BNP had few viable solutions:

1.    Having a progressive and open political party as the opposition

2.    Bringing back the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) to politics

3.    Reaching a meaningful understanding with Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI)

Points number two and three are dangerous for the BNP. If the BNP brings back BAL to Bangladesh's politics in the near future (before the next election), the BNP will lose people's support. After all, the BNP is fundamentally a supporter-based political party. 

On the other hand, if this government continues the interim government's policy of banning BAL's activities, BJI's political growth will reach new heights. At that point, doing politics as an opponent to Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami will become a major risk for the BNP.

Let's focus on point number one. The National Citizen Party (NCP) is led by student leaders from the 2024 uprising. However, they contested the 2026 election in alliance with BJI (as part of the Jamaat-led 10-party alliance). Most of its leaders are from Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami or hold like-minded views.

So, I can't see any clear political solution for the BNP. As a centrist and progressive political party, it needs a new policy framework to deal with this political uncertainty.

Not only these issues, the ruling party will face several other challenges, such as addressing the economic situation, managing relations with neighbours (India, China, and Myanmar), and maintaining ties with friends across the world.

As Prime Minister and Chairman of the BNP, Tarique Rahman has to face all of these challenges.

Abu Sufian is a journalist

Disclaimer: Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy