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After five long months since the start of the war, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has finally reached a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the month of Ramadan. But the most surprising move came from the US as it allowed the UNSC to pass the resolution which has previously vetoed all of the resolutions. It shows the shift in US policy that they are frustrated with Israel’s strategies in Gaza.Israel might soon find itself alone without any support. Along with the ceasefire, other conditions include the release of all hostages and expanding the flow of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip.

Israel has launched air and ground offenses after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th which killed 1200 Israelis and took hostage 250 people. Since then, 32,000 Palestinians have died in those operations, most of them are women and children. The people in Gaza are suffering from food, water, electricity, and medicines and are on the verge of famine. 

Israel, while being disappointed in the US, has rejected the ceasefire resolution. However, as war is dragging many of Israel’s decades-old allies are rethinking their decisions leaving the US the only backer so the US’s decision came as a shock to Israel. Israel's Prime Minister has said that the US’s abstention from veto is a sign of retreat and has canceled the high-level delegation visit to Washington. 

So why did the US take this drastic decision to go against its one of closest allies? The US is taking a strategic position in this case. People are criticizing Israel as well as the countries that are supporting its actions in Gaza. Not only that the upcoming presidential election in November has also played a key role in the US’s vote. Joe Biden needs the support of Muslims who are abandoning him. This group of people is critical of Israel’s action and is demanding a ceasefire. States like Michigan and Wisconsin which hold a large Muslim population are important for Biden to run against Donald Trump. He also needs the support of the Arab countries who are criticizing the actions of Israel and asking the US to change its position. Biden wants both parties for the upcoming election which is why it chose not to veto the resolution brought by the UNSC. It is sporadic for the US not to cover up for Israel. According to an analysis by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the US has vetoed 45 resolutions which were against Israel accounting for more than half of its 89 vetoes in the UNSC.US abstention shows a clear sign that it has reached its limits in supporting Israel. 

However, questions have been raised about whether the resolution is binding or not. Generally, resolutions passed in the UNSC are legally binding on all of the UN members. China’s UN ambassador Zhang Jun countered and Deputy UN spokesperson Farhan Haq said that the UNSC resolutions are binding yet the US officials are saying that the resolution is non-binding. Experts have said that it depends on the language used in such resolutions as ambiguous words leave room for interpretation. In the recent resolution, however, there are different opinions on whether the resolution falls under the UN Chapter VI or VII, the latter is binding on the UN members. Analysts have said that without the use of the word “decide” or without the invocation of Chapter VII in the resolution the resolution is non-binding. So there is a legal confusion here. 

The US’s policy has changed but it has not taken a U-turn yet. The US is distancing itself from Netanyahu but not from Israel itself. US officials see Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace but not Israel itself.  Even after the passing of the resolution, the US is continuing to supply military aid to Israel. If the US decides to put conditions on military aid, it will be difficult for Israel to sustain in the long run. But so far this option has not been taken by any US administration and it is less likely that the Biden administration will take it. The US has made a 10-year aid commitment which will continue till 2028 to Israel. Also, industries on both sides have a deep connection with each other such as the Iron Dome Project. So it is less likely that the US will cut down military supply or put any sort of conditions.

Even though the resolution has been passed questions remain in the enforcement of the ceasefire. Doubts remain whether the Israeli government will comply with the resolution since Netanyahu has already said that they do not accept the resolution. The country ignored previous resolutions during Obama’s presidential time in 2016 when the UNSC passed a resolution that stated Israel’s settlements in Palestine were illegal. The UNSC has little to no capacity to enforce it. It is impossible to think that the UNSC will use military intervention in Israel. The other option is to use economic and diplomatic pressure to make Israel comply. But since the US has veto power it will be shot down immediately. 

The resolution calls for a ceasefire in the holy month of Ramadan but Ramadan is going to end around April 9. So the resolution will only last for a few days. Also, before the vote of this historic resolution, the US pushed to drop the word “permanent” from the resolution. Russia tried to retain the word stating that not using the word “permanent” might allow Israel to resume its military actions in the Gaza Strip again after the end of Ramadan. But in reality, the impact of the resolution is symbolic and limited. Apart from the resolution, pressure has been rising for a ‘two-state solution’ but previously such efforts have been unsuccessful. The sudden shift of the Biden administration albeit calculative is an important message to the world but it is not enough to end the conflict or reduce the suffering of Palestinians but it does give a small light of hope to end the war in the future. 

Nuzhat Tabassum is a Research Intern at CGS

The views expressed in these write-up are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policies of CGS.