Why China and India are De-Eescalating Tensions on Their Disputed Border

China and India have started pulling back troops on their disputed Himalayan border after reaching an agreement on military patrols along the frontier.

“Frontline troops from both sides are carrying out relevant work based on the recent solution reached between China and India on border-related issues, which is now progressing smoothly,” Chinese foreign ministry Lin Jian told a regular press briefing on Friday.

Observers attributed the breakthrough to China’s broader efforts to open up economically while also eyeing diplomatic gains on the world stage that a deal with India could bring.

While it could pave the way for better diplomatic and business ties between the two neighbours, some observers were cautious about whether it would lead to a significant improvement in relations.

Xi and Modi hold first formal talk in years at Brics summit

On Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Brics summit in Russia that it was important for the two countries to have more communication and cooperation and properly handle differences and disagreements.

In a post on his X account after the meeting, Modi wrote that India-China relations were “important for the people of our countries, and for regional and global peace and stability”.

“Mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual sensitivity will guide bilateral relations,” he said.

Neither China nor India released extensive details of the pact that was reached on Monday along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that separates India-controlled Ladakh and China-controlled Aksai Chin. But Indian media reported that it involved patrolling agreements in the hotspots of Depsang and Demchok.

The LAC, which has never been clearly defined, served as a loose ceasefire line after the two countries fought a brief war in 1962. The most serious clash since then was in 2020 and left at least four Chinese and 20 Indian soldiers dead.

That skirmish strained ties between the world’s two most populous nations, with both sides deploying armed forces to the front line.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on Monday said the agreement was the result of a series of discussions in the past weeks and that it would lead to “disengagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020”.

Kanti Bajpai, a professor of Asian studies at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said the 2020 clash had led to India essentially terminating all bilateral talks, blocking hundreds of Chinese apps, stopping or reviewing Chinese investments, and halting visas for Chinese nationals.

He said Monday’s pact would restore Indian patrols in areas where they had been stopped from patrolling by Chinese forces after the conflict, and that it was part of a process intended to lead to the disengagement of thousands of troops sent to the border.

Byron Chong, a research associate at the NUS’ Centre on Asia and Globalisation, said the agreement was a positive development but it was too early to tell if it would warm ties given that details remained scarce.

“At best, the agreement appears to be an attempt to restore the border to the pre-crisis status quo,” said Chong, who is also editor of the monthly China-India Brief. “The real underlying problem – the border dispute – remains unresolved, and this will continue to be a source of tension and disagreement for the two sides.”

He said China may have pushed for the pact because of the economic challenges it is facing, such as slowed growth and high youth employment.

“Coupled with the ongoing trade war with the United States, China is likely keen to secure stable international markets,” he said. “Improving ties with India could be part of this larger overall strategy of opening up new economic opportunities and reducing risks to trade.”

Reaching a deal with India could also help China diplomatically. Bajpai said that given its strained relations with the US, China would prefer to focus on East Asia and not have to worry about its western border with India.

He said China – “unhappy” with the existing international order and the dominance of Western countries – could also be eyeing support from India to back its global initiatives that seek to build an alternative system.

According to Chong, China could also be hoping to “weaken India’s commitment to the Quad and its deepening ties with the US and other allies”. “By engaging diplomatically and presenting itself as a cooperative partner, India could be influenced into adopting a more neutral or friendly stance towards China,” he said.

“Reducing tensions with India may also be an indication that China wants to concentrate on other issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea disputes.”

Economic reasons could also have been a factor for India. Chong noted that the country’s unemployment crisis had prompted calls from domestic industries to ease economic measures against China.

He said that while India had positioned itself as an alternative manufacturing hub for firms seeking to diversify from China, its economic gains have not been significant. India’s manufacturing growth has lagged behind rivals like Vietnam and Taiwan due to persistent structural issues.

“India might be beginning to realise that it stands to benefit more by renewing its economic outreach to China,” he said.

Similarly, Bajpai suggested that India may want to resume “a more normal economic relationship” with China. He noted that India buys critical manufacturing products and metals from China and also seeks Chinese investments in areas that are not considered a security risk.

“India finds itself often closer to China and Russia on global public goods issues such as climate change policies, the global economy, humanitarian intervention, and the dominance of the West in international institutions,” he added.

ZhaDaojiong, a professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies, said the border issues between China and India were “complex” but were not an “overriding” factor in the relationship.

He said areas such as trade and investment had “dynamics of their own” and continued regardless of agreements on the border.

Lan Jianxue, director of the Asia-Pacific Studies department at the China Institute of International Studies, said the agreement would be helpful for the two countries to rebuild strategic trust and offered an opportunity to “turn the page for the bilateral relationship”.

He said China and India were “representatives of emerging economies” and the pact was not only in their interests but also “the expectation of the Asia-Pacific region and the Global South”.

“The two sides should take this opportunity to gradually resume exchanges at all levels,” Lan added.

Dewey Sim is a reporter for the China desk covering Beijing's foreign policy. He was previously writing about Singapore and Southeast Asia for the Post's Asia desk.

This article was originally published on South China Morning Post.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.