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The International Criminal Court's (ICC) decision to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza has deepened Israel’s global isolation.

While criticised by Tel Aviv and its allies, including the United States, the ICC’s decision could pave the way for further investigations into war crimes and fuel diplomatic tensions that could shape the outcome of Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Following months of investigations into Israel's war, which began after Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack, the ICC found reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant were responsible for war crimes in Gaza, including starvation and blocking aid, as well as crimes against humanity, such as murder, persecution, and failing to protect the civilian population.

The charges cover alleged crimes committed until 20 May 2024 but do not extend beyond that.

Israel has killed over 44,000 Palestinians in Gaza, including more than 17,000 children. In September it launched a war on Lebanon, booby-trapping Hezbollah’s telecommunications with explosives and intensifying airstrikes before launching a ground invasion shortly afterwards. Israel has killed over 3,670 people in Lebanon since October 2023, the majority in recent months.

Human rights groups have documented potential war crimes, including attacks on medical personnel, the United Nations mission UNIFIL, and civilians, including an attack in central Beirut that killed at least 20 people last week.

Despite international outcry over the past year, Netanyahu has continued to escalate military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, and it is unclear what impact the ICC's arrest warrant will have in bringing them to an end.

Middle East expert Rafe Jabari told The New Arab that European countries that have vowed to enforce the ICC's decision could consider reducing financial and military support for Israel, despite it being minimal compared to US support.

The ICC decision could also increase domestic pressure on Netanyahu from civil society organisations and delegitimise Israeli actions in the occupied Palestinian territories, empowering global efforts to expose further war crimes and providing Palestinians with a platform to challenge the decades-long occupation.

"Palestinians and Lebanese may use the ICC's decision to argue Israel's actions violate international law, potentially leading to further international criticism," he said.

But from a diplomatic standpoint, particularly regarding the cessation of hostilities, the ICC's decision is not expected to have immediate effects. Ceasefire and hostage release talks in Gaza have stalled, prompting Qatar to withdraw as a mediator.

Instead, progress appears to be being made in talks between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, mediated by US special envoy Amos Hochstein.

However, Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told TNA that he doesn't foresee a ceasefire in Lebanon, as the situation on the ground reflects an Israeli escalation and he doubts Israel will agree to end hostilities.

"At this point, the Biden administration has no leverage over them, and I don't think Netanyahu is taking into account the ICC's decision, as he has the support of the United States," he said.

Israel's military actions following the ICC's arrest warrants further reflect how Tel Aviv is effectively ignoring the global court’s decision.

Since being issued, Israel has intensified its attacks in southern Lebanon, with reports indicating that the Israeli army is cutting off the Nabatieh-Marjaayoun road, targeting Hezbollah positions, and approaching the town of Deir Mimas, with Hezbollah fighting back.

Fierce clashes are also occurring in Khiam and the coastal Bayada area as Israeli troops push forward and Hezbollah attacks Israeli military targets.

While Israel appears to be creating a military buffer zone between the Litani River and the Blue Line in the south, in Gaza, the Israeli military is focusing its assaults on the north, although strikes continue across the strip, killing hundreds of civilians in recent days. Israel has also occupied a number of corridors, including Netzarim and Philadelphi, to fragment Gaza, displace residents, and establish long-term control.

However, analyst Rafe Jabari explained that maintaining this current situation may be challenging for Israel, potentially leading to an "attrition situation" with a high death toll for Israeli forces. Around 11,000 Israeli soldiers have been injured and 890 killed since 7 October 2023.

It is also uncertain what role the ICC's decision will play for US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Middle East strategy when he takes office in January. While Trump has vowed to end foreign wars, his unbridled support for Israel may undermine this plan.

Young explained to TNA that Israel is intensifying pressure to do whatever it takes to weaken Hezbollah and will continue with this strategy. Trump is unlikely to stop this escalation, with his cabinet picks reflecting a staunchly pro-Israel policy unlikely to exert pressure on Tel Aviv.

"I don't think Trump is going to expend political capital to impose a ceasefire, especially if everyone tells him that Hezbollah is losing and that this is a chance to get rid of the problem. In that sense, Netanyahu has the ability to continue the war beyond January," Young said.

Jabari argues that US envoy Amos Hochstein is preparing the ground for negotiations but not for a comprehensive deal, which may be finalised under the Trump administration. The focus for the US and Israel will then likely shift to Gaza and the West Bank, where Israel seeks a continued military presence and settlement expansion.

"This trade-off could mean Israel compromises on Lebanon in exchange for gains in Gaza and the West Bank but risks losing Israeli prisoners, as military pressure increases the likelihood of their deaths," he said.

In this context, US opposition to the ICC's decision and its support for Israel contrasted with European countries backing its enforcement, potentially creating a rift that further isolates Israel and limits Europe's role in mediating ceasefires. For instance, Israel has reportedly rejected France's involvement in Lebanon-Israel ceasefire negotiations since Paris said it would act "in line with the ICC’s statutes”.

Young argues that a rift may emerge between the US and Europe over the ICC's arrest warrant for Netanyahu, which could impact Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as US-European relations. Senator Lindsey Graham, an ally of Trump, has already called to punish any Western countries that comply with the ICC’s decision, warning that the US could “crush” their economies.

"When it comes to a rules-based international order, the repercussions will be felt beyond just the question of Netanyahu, and it will force the United States to decide where it stands on this issue, with a price to pay if they don't implement the ICC's decision," he said.

Jabari explained that any potential rift might lead Trump to negotiate with Europe, creating tensions over trade, the ICC ruling, and within European societies as civil movements build momentum against Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Tensions were evident in a UN Security Council session last week when the US voted against a resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza.

"The US vetoed a resolution that could have ended the war, missing another opportunity. Although the conditions are not yet ripe for an immediate resolution, the ICC's decision offers hope, but difficult months lie ahead," Jabari said.

Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights.

This article was originally published on The New Arab.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.