Leadership Void: A Pivotal Moment for Hamas and Netanyahu
Nuzhat Tabassum | 15 October 2024A symbol of resistance against occupation, an iconic hero and an inspiration to all the people supporting the end of genocide in Palestine. Yahya Sinwar, top leader of Hamas, was shot dead by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on 16th October 2024 who was directly responsible for the October 07 terror attack leading to 1200 deaths and taking 250 Israeli hostages . He was on the wanted list of the Israeli military for so long it might be an achievement for them . Analysts predict that his death has presented Israel an opportunity to end the war once and for all . However, Israel has declared that they will continue their operations in Gaza even after the death of Sinwar as long as they deem necessary .
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be able to say to the angry and disappointed Israelis that one of Israel’s aims has been fulfilled . Sinwars’ death will strengthen Netanyahu’s political position domestically as well as internationally . It will allow him to be more flexible to make a ceasefire deal which will end the war in Gaza in exchange for hostages . Netanyahu is backed by two far-right groups that have vowed to overthrow the government if a cease-fire agreement is reached for the conflict before Hamas has been destroyed completely. They strongly believe that Hamas will use any ceasefire to regroup as a threat to Israel again . Moreover, these are advocating for establishing Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, which has been rejected by Netanyahu . On the other hand, Netanyahu is facing problems domestically as well over the release of hostages. Their families are demonstrating protests for negotiations of ceasefire and release of hostages . However, Netanyahu’s war aims are yet to be fulfilled. Firstly, eradication of Hamas as a fighting force and a threat to Israel. Secondly, rescuing 100 Israelis hostages taken by Hamas in Gaza. Thirdly, working with Hezbollah to maintain deterrence in Lebanon so that the 60,000 Israelis who were recently displaced from northern Israel may go back to their homes . The US might pressure Israel to end the war in Gaza and give access to humanitarian aid to 2.3 million people residing in Gaza who have been displaced by Israeli airstrikes .
The biggest impact will be on Hamas which lost most of its top leaders in the recent year. It will now have to find a new leader who will be as impactful as Sinwar. Sinwar was a hardliner when it came to ceasefire negotiations with Israel when it came to ending the war in Gaza and release of Israeli hostages . He was committed to calls for a permanent cease-fire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian captives. His death might quicken any deal of ceasefire negotiations. The group's political leadership in Qatar will probably have more freedom and authority now. Among them are Khaled Mashaal and Khalil al-Hayya, two important Hamas representatives in the months-long negotiations. Qatar, a crucial mediator that houses some of Hamas' top leaders, may exert further pressure on those leaders, which may hasten the process of reaching an agreement . But with lack of credible leaders it is also possible that ceasefire negotiations will be harder to approach since many top leaders were killed by Israeli forces within a year. But Sinwar was directing daily operations. So there is no possibility that Hamas will disintegrate quickly. Over the years, Hamas has become a guerilla force which makes it much more difficult to dismantle. The classic way to eliminate a guerilla force is to ‘clear, hold and build’. This entails removing the enemy from a region, deploying troops to retain it, and creating an atmosphere that prevents the adversary from reestablishing itself. Israel can do the holding and clearing, but it hasn't been able to create an atmosphere that would prevent Hamas from operating .
The war in Gaza still remains uncertain as well as what Netanyahu' s next move will be. But despite Sinwars’ death, he remains an inspiring figure among a large number of People including Palestinians. He fought all his life against oppression. Even in the face of the death he threw a stick towards the Israeli drone; signifying his last attempt to fight against Israeli oppression.