Solomon Islands Election: China Scores Strategic Victory in South Pacific

"The South Pacific region should not become an arena for great powers to play games, and no country should treat the island countries as its own 'backyard' or engage in zero-sum games and exclusionary arrangements," stated China ‘s Foreign Minister Wang during a joint press conference with his Papua New Guinea counterpart while visiting the country. He called for all parties to respect the choice of the people of the Solomon Islands and discourage interference in their internal affairs.

In the parliamentary election of the Solomon Islands 2024,Sogavare is a prime ministerial candidate. In 2022, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare forged a security agreement with China and invited Chinese police into the Pacific Islands archipelago, drew the Pacific Islands nation closer to Beijing. Although Sogavare has held the position four times before, he has never served consecutive terms.  Previously, after becoming Prime Minister in 2019,Sogavare switched diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing and has since strived to strengthen relations with China. This included various infrastructure projects such as ports, roads, and a telecommunications network developed by China in the Solomon Islands. As the current leader of the Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party (OUR), Sogavare, has reiterated his intentions to foster deeper ties with China. However, Opposition parties are skeptical about the security pact with China. They argued that the general people of the island are more concerned about poor health services, education, and infrastructure development.

The powerful opposition figure Daniel Suidani has expressed grave concern over China's gaining a foothold in the Solomon Islands, preceding the election period. He believes that a pro-Chinese government could further strengthen Beijing's presence in the region. Suidani, who served as the preceding premier of Malaita province, has accused China of erosive impacts on democracy. He alleges that the Chinese Communist Party is diplomatically supporting pro-Beijing parliamentarians. Suidani’s concerns revolved around Chinese aid and investments, including a development fund that has been criticized as a way to curry favor with politicians. He has warned against Beijing's heavy clout and has highlighted his province's decision to block Huawei's telecom project. The decision reflects concerns about reflecting fears over China's expanding power in the Pacific nation.

The Solomon Islands archipelago has a population of 700,000 people and it is strategically located 1,600 km (990 miles) northeast of Australia. The Islands have faced turmoil in the past, including seditious riots in 2021 and inter-communal violence. Due to its location, Solomon Island’s stance in the US-China Rivalry is crucial. It has the potential to impact sea and air access, affect Taiwan contingencies, and complicate defense planning for the US and its allies including Australia. The decision not to participate in the Pacific Summit, 2022 led by the USA was seen as a setback for the US in its regional competition with China for influence in the Pacific islands. The US is taking steps to counter China's expanding influence in Oceania by reopening embassies, strengthening bilateral ties with island nations, and collaborating with allies like Australia on military infrastructure upgrades. The Pacific islands play a vital role in the US integrated deterrence strategy against China because of their strategic locations for maritime trade, potential military basing and logistics, intelligence gathering, and diplomatic partnerships.

The national parliament consists of 50 members, elected for a four-year term. The result of the election will determine if any party has secured a majority or if coalition negotiations will be necessary to select a prime Minister.  In the 2024 election, the two major opposition parties, CARE and the Democratic Alliance Party, struck a coalition deal to vie against Sogavare’s OUR party. CARE won 20 seats, while OUR party won 15 seats in the election but there was no clear winner. To form a government, it will be crucial for these parties to court independent candidates and secure 26 seats. The incumbent Prime Minister of Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, announced that he would not run for prime minister in the upcoming vote of May 2, instead, his political party will support former Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele. 

National elections held on April 17, 2024,delivered no clear winner. It became necessary for weeks of backroom negotiations to form a government. Lawmakers, who are not bound to political parties cast their votes for prime minister in a secret ballot. The nomination vote for the new prime minister took place on May 2. The Solomon Islands will look forward to deepening strong ties with China as Jeremiah Manele becomes the new Prime Minister. He wins the backing of 31 legislators in 50 seats house in a secret ballot. Manele, a far less strident and polarizing political figure will continue to provide China the privileged political access to Solomon Island but in a less rubble-rousing manner.

Debi Karmakar is a Research Assistant at CGS 

The views expressed in these write-up are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policies of CGS.