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Iran has entered 2026 with an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy. What started as a localized merchant strike in the Tehran Grand Bazaar in late December 2025 has rapidly transferred into a nationwide uprising that challenges the very foundations of the Islamic Republic. This movement marks the first time since 1979 that the traditional merchant class has combined forces with the youth and the industrial working class to demand a total systemic transition. As the state moved to suppress the protests, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported that an estimated 40,887 people were detained and 6,126 people were killed during demonstrations across various parts of the country.

The January protest is the most extensive since the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement of 2022. This current uprising originated with the gradual incorporation of economic demands into open resistance. The movements' demands quickly escalated into explicit calls for change, echoed by pro-Pahlavi (Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah) and pro-monarchy chants. The widespread use of anti-government slogans, most notably direct critiques of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signals a shift that goes well beyond economic hardships or decades of systematic suppression. Contextually, Iran’s political system is a hybrid of theocracy and republic, where ultimate authority lies with the unelected office of the Supreme Leader and civil liberties are heavily curtailed. The current unrest has bypassed usual calls for reform, targeting the very core of the regime's legitimacy instead.

Amidst anti-government protests, Reza Pahlavi presents himself as the transitional symbol of reconciliation rather than just a monarchist figurehead. In a political landscape where the state has systematically restricted freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, Pahlavi has proposed a 100-day plan for interim administration. He stated that it's about securing a democratic future for all Iranians. His prominence reflects a profound desire for free elections, rule of law, and equal rights for women as citizens look for a unifying figure capable of managing a transition in the face of state-led chaos. 

The defining characteristic of this protest is the absence of a monolithic supporter’s bloc. While some protestors chant for the return of the Shah, others remain wary of the revival of the monarchy. However, Pahlavi has proposed a referendum to determine Iran’s future form of government. The rising popularity of Reza arguably is less about his engagement with Iranian society but more a byproduct of the last resort in Iran’s political landscape. 

What distinguishes the movement from its predecessors is a level of diversity that transcends previous movements. In 2022, the movement was ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini, who was in the custody of Tehran’s morality police. The movement was youth-led and gender focused. The uprising in 2026 is fueled by economic exhaustion, leading to a major alliance between merchants and the industrial working class since the 1979 revolution. The diverse network, which includes students, women, professionals, and local groups, has become a powerful force for change. The current movement is not just social but functional.

The Iranian government have responded by dismissing the protests with utmost cruelty. Since early January, the security apparatus has engaged in industrial-scale arbitrary detentions, with over fifty thousand citizens currently held in the security-judicial complex. The demonstration is considered as Moharebeh, translated as ‘waging against God’, a capital offence that carries the penalty of execution. To facilitate this crackdown, Security forces responded with lethal force to disperse protestors. The government enforced a total internet blackout and extreme violence against protestors that resulted in mass burials. 

The current deadlock in Iran is no longer an economic unrest. It has transcended the possibility of systematic transformation. As the youth refuse to retreat, the crisis in Tehran has reached a critical mass that is a matter of uncertainty. Despite the intensity of protests, the way of protest seems fragmented, and demands are not always shared. It demonstrated the consequences of the past, where collective action has become episodic and transactional.

The global response to the widespread humanitarian crisis has heightened from the beginning. It has shifted from passive condemnation to active diplomatic action. The current humanitarian catastrophe has forced the international community to focus on the state's structural legitimacy. The EU has added the IRGC to its terrorist list in response to the deadliest crackdown. Washington has signaled to intervene state led violence and halt the ongoing catastrophe.

Ultimately the uprising represents a definitive breaking point for Islamic Republic. Despite the state’s reliance on brutality, this is no longer an economic unrest but a battle for survival. 

•    JahanaraJaba is a Research Intern at Centre for Governance Studies (CGS)

Disclaimer: Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy